Riportiamo un estratto dei dati diffusi dal FMI nel suo Economic Outlook perché consentono di rendersi conto dell’andamento dell’economia globlale (nei diversi “elementi” che la influenzano). Anche questa volta la rettifica dei dati rispetto alla precedente previsione è in negativo.
Lo scenario che scaturisce, al netto del ottimismo “istituzionale”, non è rassicurante anche perché vi è una significativa correzione nelle aspettative di crescita dei c.d. “emergenti”, il motore del futuro, la speranza del mondo,….

“Downside risks, old and new, still dominate the outlook. Although imminent tail risks in advanced economies have diminished, additional measures will be needed to keep them at bay, including timely increases in the U.S. debt ceiling and continued “do what it takes” action by the euro area authorities to avoid a sharp deterioration in financial conditions. In contrast, risks of a longer growth slowdown in emerging market economies have now increased, due to protracted effects of domestic capacity constraints, slowing credit growth, and weak external conditions.
The forecasts assume that the recent rise in financial market volatility and the associated yield increases will partly reverse, as they largely reflect a one-off repricing of risk due to the changing growth outlook for emerging market economies and temporary uncertainty about the exit from monetary policy stimulus in the United States. However, if underlying vulnerabilities lead to additional portfolio shifts, further yield increases, and continued higher volatility, the result could be sustained capital flow reversals and lower growth in emerging economies“. (ndr il grassetto è nostro)

Carino il concetto di “underlying vulnerabilities”… un concetto utilizzato normalmente in biologia, sociologia o psicologia e che implica una dissimulazione dei problemi a causa della consapevolezza delle difficili soluzioni necessarie a risolverli.

Comunque tranquilli il Giappone ci salverà… (+2% nel 2013 e +1.2% nel 2014) …oppure no?!

Aggiornamento delle stime sulla crescia globale del FMI: (rielaborazione dati FMI)

 

 

Projections

Difference from April 2013 WEO Published

 

2011

2012

2013

2014

2013

2014

World Output

3.9

3.1

3.1

3.8

–0.2

–0.2

Advanced Economies

1.7

1.2

1.2

2.1

–0.1

–0.2

United States

1.8

2.2

1.7

2.7

–0.2

–0.2

Euro Area

1.5

–0.6

–0.6

0.9

–0.2

–0.1

Germany

3.1

0.9

0.3

1.3

–0.3

–0.1

France

2.0

0.0

–0.2

0.8

–0.1

0.0

Italy

0.4

–2.4

–1.8

0.7

–0.3

0.2

Spain

0.4

–1.4

–1.6

0.0

0.0

–0.7

Japan

–0.6

1.9

2.0

1.2

0.5

–0.3

United Kingdom

1.0

0.3

0.9

1.5

0.3

0.0

Canada

2.5

1.7

1.7

2.2

0.2

–0.2

Other Adv.  Econ.

3.3

1.8

2.3

3.3

–0.1

–0.1

Emerging Market and Dev. Ec.

6.2

4.9

5.0

5.4

–0.3

–0.3

Russia

4.3

3.4

2.5

3.3

–0.9

–0.5

Developing Asia

7.8

6.5

6.9

7.0

–0.3

–0.3

China

9.3

7.8

7.8

7.7

–0.3

–0.6

India

6.3

3.2

5.6

6.3

–0.2

–0.1

ASEAN-5

4.5

6.1

5.6

5.7

–0.3

0.2

Brazil

2.7

0.9

2.5

3.2

–0.5

–0.8

Mexico

3.9

3.9

2.9

3.2

–0.5

–0.2

Sub-Saharian Africa

5.4

4.9

5.1

5.9

–0.4

–0.2

South Africa

3.5

2.5

2.0

2.9

–0.8

–0.4

(rielaborazione dati del FMI – vedi link per dettagli)

Per approfondire: WEO  09/07/2013

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